Global Macro Forecast: Still Good Just Not as Good

 

Global economic growth has downshifted. While slowdowns are uncomfortable, they are also necessary and yield benefits. The Global Macro Forecast report analyzes multiple factors contributing to economic slowdown and what they mean for property markets around the world.

  • Real GDP is projected to grow 3.3% in 2019—still reasonable, but a big pullback from the close to 4% growth registered at the peak in 2017.
  • Demand metrics for property also slowed in Q1 2019 but remained positive, vacancy is holding steady and rents are appreciating across most product types and geographies.
  • Although the U.S.-China trade dispute has taken a turn for the worse, there are economic incentives to get a deal done in short order.
  • The U.S. yield curve is causing angst again, but the recent inversion is occurring for reasons that are quite different than ones that have signaled recessions in the past. A U.S. recession is not imminent.
  • Assuming no major policy missteps, the global expansion will continue; property markets have proven they perform just fine when growth is “good but not great."


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