Along with the moderate recovery in economy, GDP shrank less severely compared to the previous quarter by 1.5% y-o-y in the second quarter of 2019, meanwhile the real sector confidence and consumer confidence index recorded 98.8 and 55.8 in September respectively, both at similar levels compared to the last quarter. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 14.3% in July 2019, on the other hand headline inflation rate sharply fell to its lowest rate in almost 3 years and recorded at single digit level, 9.26% in September. Yet, the exchange rate fluctuation continues to be an inhibitor for transaction activities in the Turkey office market.
According to the shopping centre retail data provided by AYD/Akademetre, the turnover index has increased by 7.8% y-o-y in August 2019, almost half of the inflation rose by 15.01% level on the same period, even with the holiday season where spending is typically outside of the city. The highest rise was recorded in the food & beverage category sales with 17.8% in August 2019, while shoes category sales has come in second, decreased to 15.6% comparing to highest rise in all categories by 22.5% recorded in July 2019, whereas both categories were recorded above the indicated inflation. Meanwhile, in August 2019, the footfall index decreased by 2.7% y-o-y, however it has been recorded on the same level comparing to the previous quarter.
Following the Turkey export trade volume hitting its highest figure in January-May 2019 period, export and import trade volumes proceeded to escalate with an increase rates of 1.6% and 1.5% y-o-y in August 2019, respectively. Furthermore, the foreign trade deficit rose slightly by 1.2% to US$2.5 bn in August 2019 in the corresponding month of the previous year. Meanwhile, annual CPI inflation fell sharply to 9.26% in September, recorded at single digit for the first time since July 2017, therefore the annual rise in D-PPI also decreased to 2.45% y-o-y in September 2019, the lowest level recorded since September 2016.