- Tenant-favourable conditions will fall from 52% today to 33% by 2029
- Global logistics rents 36% higher than in 2020 despite growth moderating in 2025
- Globally, 54% of markets expect rental growth over the next three years
LONDON, 27 May 2026 – Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) analysis of 135 global logistics markets in its Waypoint 2026 report indicates that the proportion experiencing tenant‑favourable conditions is expected to fall from 52% in 2026 to 33% by 2029 as vacancy tightens and supply remains constrained. This shift in the balance of power will see 39% of markets experiencing landlord-favourable conditions in 2029, up from 26% in 2026.
Demand for higher‑quality, strategically located assets is being reinforced as businesses redesign their networks to reduce exposure to geopolitical, trade and climate disruption which are becoming structural factors, rather than episodic disruptors. Global logistics rents already sit 36% above 2020 levels and operating costs continue to rise, prompting occupiers to make strategic decisions to secure critical locations. Globally, 54% of markets expect rental growth over the next three years.
Report author Sally Bruer, Cushman & Wakefield, said: “The next phase of the logistics cycle will be defined by preparedness. Businesses that embed resilience into their real estate strategies, through smarter use of technology, automation and energy‑secure assets, will be far better placed to navigate disruption and capture long‑term growth.”
Beyond the global picture, there are significant differences between and within regions.
Americas facing the most abrupt shift towards landlords
Current tenant‑favourable conditions in 53% of markets are down sharply from 72% a year ago as vacancy has stabilised. By 2029, landlord‑favourable markets (17% today) are expected to rise to 46% - the most pronounced regional shift globally.
This transition is driving more decisive action from occupiers, particularly in major U.S. logistics hubs such as California’s Inland Empire, Atlanta and Indianapolis where supply and demand are coming back into alignment. Nearshoring and manufacturing investment continue to support demand in Mexico, notably in markets such as Monterrey and Tijuana, reinforcing long‑term location strategies.
Elevated labour and energy costs are accelerating demand for more efficient, automation‑ready facilities, while stronger rental growth in Latin America, led by São Paulo [yoy 36%], reflects tightening availability and growing occupier demand, driven by e‑commerce and manufacturing demand.
Jason Tolliver, President, Americas Logistics & Industrial Services, Cushman & Wakefield, said: “The Americas are moving back towards a landlord-led market faster than any other region. In the U.S., we are already seeing supply and demand rebalance, while nearshoring into Mexico continues to drive new demand. For occupiers, that means the cost of waiting is rising quickly, especially for well-located, high-quality space.”
APAC: A story of divergence
APAC remains the most tenant‑favourable region globally, with 47% of markets currently favouring occupiers, although conditions vary sharply between locations as supply and demand diverge.
Supply‑constrained markets such as Australia, Japan and Singapore are experiencing increasing competition for space, with vacancy expected to decline as development pipelines remain limited. In contrast, more tenant‑friendly conditions persist in parts of India and on the Chinese mainland, where higher levels of new supply continue to provide occupiers with greater flexibility.
This divergence is reinforcing a market‑by‑market approach across the region. For landlords, aligning assets with high‑growth sectors such as e‑commerce, manufacturing, high‑tech and automotive, while ensuring buildings can support power demand and automation, is becoming increasingly important.
Dennis Yeo, Head of Investor Services and Logistics & Industrial, Asia Pacific, Cushman & Wakefield, said: “Different markets across APAC are experiencing different stages of growth, fuelled by resilient occupier demand led by e-commerce and manufacturing. Supply constraints in markets such as Japan and Australia are driving competition, meanwhile continued availability in China and India is creating opportunity.”
EMEA facing supply and energy constraint challenge
In EMEA, 54% of markets are currently tenant‑favourable, although this share is expected to fall to 39% by 2029 as vacancy stabilises or declines and development pipelines remain restrained. The window of opportunity for occupiers is narrowing, particularly in core markets such as the UK, Germany and the Netherlands.
Across Western and Northern Europe, tightening vacancy in markets including the UK, Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands is reinforcing the need for early decision‑making to secure high‑quality space. In Central and Eastern Europe, markets such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary continue to offer more varied conditions, although improving absorption is expected to gradually tighten availability.
Energy costs remain a key differentiator across the region. Elevated electricity prices in countries such as Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK are driving occupiers toward energy‑efficient buildings, schemes with access to renewable energy and locations with reliable power infrastructure.
Tim Crighton, Head of Logistics & Industrial, EMEA, Cushman & Wakefield, said: “The shift in EMEA’s logistics landscape isn’t just about speed it’s also about strategy and building resilience. The right real estate is becoming harder to secure in key markets, and rising energy costs and the need to be automation ready are making asset quality a differentiator. For occupiers, waiting to act will be a risk in some markets and success will come from combing real estate strategy with long-term operational performance, flexibility and sustainability.”
