- Markets with tenant-favorable conditions are expected to decline from 52% currently to 33% by 2029
- Global logistics rents are 36% above 2020 levels, despite moderated growth in 2025
- Globally, 54% of markets are expected to see rental growth over the next three years
Cushman & Wakefield’s (C&W) analysis of 135 logistics markets, in its Waypoint 2026 report, indicates that the proportion of tenant-favorable markets is expected to fall from 52% in 2026 to 33% by 2029, as vacancy rates remain under pressure and supply continues to be constrained. This shift in the balance of power means that 39% of markets will become landlord-favorable by 2029, compared with 26% in 2026.
Demand for higher-quality, well-located and strategically positioned assets is increasing as companies redesign their logistics networks to reduce exposure to geopolitical, trade and climate risks—factors that are becoming structural rather than merely cyclical. Global logistics rents are already 36% above 2020 levels, and operating costs continue to rise, prompting occupiers to make strategic decisions to secure critical locations. Globally, 54% of markets anticipate rental growth over the next three years.
The report’s author, Sally Bruer of Cushman & Wakefield, stated: “The next phase of the logistics cycle will be defined by preparedness and anticipation. Companies that embed resilience into their real estate strategies—through smarter use of technology, automation, and energy-efficient assets—will be much better positioned to manage disruptions and secure long-term growth.”
Beyond the global view, there are significant differences between and within regions.
In Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), 54% of markets are currently tenant-favorable, although this share is expected to drop to 39% by 2029 as availability stabilizes or declines and development pipelines remain limited. The window of opportunity for occupiers is therefore narrowing, especially in core markets such as the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands.
In Northern and Western Europe, declining vacancy rates in markets such as the United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands reinforce the need for early decision-making to secure high-quality space. In Central and Eastern Europe, markets such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary still show more varied conditions, although improving absorption is expected to gradually reduce availability.
Energy costs remain a key differentiating factor in the region. High electricity prices in countries such as Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are directing occupiers toward energy-efficient buildings, projects with access to renewable energy, and locations with reliable energy infrastructure.
Portugal, alongside countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, Belgium and Sweden, continues to record rental growth, driven by the resilience of occupational demand, combined with limited availability of space and a constrained future supply, both in speculative projects and in build-to-suit developments (properties built or adapted to the specific needs of occupiers).
Sérgio Nunes, Head of Industrial, Logistics & Land at Cushman & Wakefield in Portugal, comments: “Portugal is part of a select group of European markets where rents have grown the most over the past 12 months, reflecting a clear imbalance between supply and demand, particularly in the high-quality asset segment. This trend is also linked to a shift in occupier preferences, which increasingly favor modern, efficient and well-located spaces. At the same time, the sector is undergoing a structural transformation, with demand concentrating on large-scale, highly automated warehouses. Despite some projects under development, the pipeline remains limited relative to demand, meaning supply shortages are expected to persist in 2026, continuing to place upward pressure on rents.”
