A Resilient Economic Foundation
The broader economic landscape in Portugal provides a solid foundation for market confidence. In 2025, the nation's GDP grew by a respectable 1.9%, with optimistic forecasts predicting an acceleration to 2.3% in 2026. Inflationary pressures are easing, with inflation expected to moderate to 2.3% in 2025 and dip below the 2.0% mark in the following years. This stabilisation is complemented by a robust labour market, where unemployment is projected to fall from 6.1% in 2025 to 5.7% in 2026. Furthermore, a 1.2% growth in exports and a strong 3.5% expansion in private consumption signal sustained economic vitality, fueling demand across various sectors, including logistics and industrial operations.
Demand recalibrates, but key hubs remain strong
While the economic outlook is positive, industrial and logistics demand saw a period of adjustment in 2025. Total take-up for the year reached 484,970 sq m, a 39% decrease compared to the previous year. The average deal size also contracted by 26% to 6,640 sq m, suggesting a market shift towards smaller, more strategic acquisitions.
Despite this overall softening, activity remained heavily concentrated in Portugal's primary economic hubs. Greater Lisbon was the engine of demand, accounting for 56% of the total take-up, with Greater Porto following at 34%. The fourth quarter featured several significant transactions that underscore the continued appetite for high-quality spaces. Notable deals included SPAR's lease of a 17,500 sq m facility at Panattoni Park Santarém and Ontime Logística's 15,510 sq m lease in Vialonga. Other key transactions involved Urbanos securing 10,500 sq m in Castanheira do Ribatejo and Torrestir leasing 10,410 sq m in Arcozelo, contributing to a total of 22 new occupancy deals in the final quarter.
Vacancy Tightens Amidst Scarcity of Quality Space
The persistent undersupply of modern, high-quality logistics facilities remains a defining feature of the market. In Greater Lisbon, the vacancy rate edged down to a tight 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This low availability highlights the ongoing challenge for businesses seeking prime logistics space in the region.
Rental Growth Reflects Supply and Demand Imbalance
The scarcity of available space, coupled with sustained occupier demand, has continued to drive rental values upward. Prime rents have climbed in key logistics zones. In Greater Lisbon's prime Castanheira-Azambuja corridor, rents reached €5.65 per square metre per month. Meanwhile, Greater Porto's Port of Leixões–Airport zone saw prime rents hit €5.90 per square metre per month. This upward trend was not limited to prime assets, as average rents also increased across most zones in these core regions, reflecting the fundamental imbalance between limited supply and healthy demand.
A Robust Pipeline Promises Future Opportunities
Looking ahead, the construction and supply pipeline appears robust, signaling a concerted effort to address the market's supply constraints. In 2025 alone, 303,250 sq m of new logistics space was completed, with the majority located in Greater Lisbon and Greater Porto.
The development momentum is set to continue, with an impressive 758,500 sq m of new space planned for delivery over the next three years. Of this, 449,900 sq m is already under construction, indicating a strong short-term delivery schedule. Key projects poised to shape the future landscape include Phase III of the Northern Lisbon Logistics Platform, the Malveira Prime Logistics development, and the Panattoni Park Lisbon-City project. These new developments will be crucial in accommodating future growth and easing the supply pressures that currently define the market.
