The market is undergoing structural changes. Business activity remains high. The H1 2021 take-up grew by 28% y-o-y, active construction is underway, vacancy rate growth is constrained by simultaneous delivery of large built-to-suit properties. Thus, the forecast was revised to reflect current upward market trend.
In 2021 new construction will exceed 500,000 sq. m for the first time in 5 years due to the delivery of large built-to-suit properties. The delivery of major speculative facilities will take place in the second part of the year.
In 2021, the consumer market will recover the decline of the last year. In 2022-2023 retail trade turnover is expected to grow at a moderate rate of 1.5%. In May-June 2021, the footfall in shopping centers in Moscow is still below the level of 2019 by 10%. By the end of 2021, the footfall is unlikely to return to the pre-crises level – the lag will be around 10-15%.
Construction activity remains stable - new shopping centers are opening both in Moscow and in the regions of Russia.
The market continues to grow. After the demand peak in 2020 the segment is slowly stabilizing, but on the level higher than previous average annual indicators. By the end of the year, new deliveries are expected to reach 1 mn sq. m for the first time in 5 years.
The vacancy rate in class A is at the level of 2.5% - 3%. Active speculative construction did not affect the indicator due to pre-leases in newly delivered big-box properties. High built-to-suit pipeline will support the vacancy by year-end.
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