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Hungary MarketBeat

Orsolya Hegedűs • 2/19/2021

Office

According to CSO figures, the Hungarian economy bounced back through GDP growth of 9% in Q3 2020. However, similarly to the rest of Europe, the second wave of COVID-19 has had a significant impact and further lockdown measures have been implemented. It is expected that this will lead to a fall again in Q4 and Moody’s forecast that GDP will contract by 9.2% in 2020. The GKI business sentiment index has recovered by year-end but plans for downsizing has appeared in the business sector with decision making processes remaining slow. Hungary is expected to significantly benefit from the next generation EU recovery fund, which will provide a stimulus to the economy equal to some 6.7% of GDP in the period of 2021-2025. GDP is forecast to growth 3.0% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.

Retail

According to CSO figures, the Hungarian economy bounced back through GDP growth of 9% in Q3 2020 exceeding expectations with total retail sales at 1.7% up y-o-y in 2020. However, similarly to the rest of Europe, the second wave of COVID-19 has had a significant impact and further lockdown measures have been implemented. It is expected that this will lead to a fall again in Q4 and Moody’s forecast that GDP will contract by 9.2% this year. Hungary is expected to significantly benefit from the next generation EU recovery fund agreed in 2020 which will provide a stimulus to the Hungarian economy, equal to some 6.7% of GDP in the period of 2021-2025. GDP is forecast to growth 3.0% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.

Industrial

According to CSO figures, the Hungarian economy bounced back through GDP growth of 9% in Q3 2020exceeding expectations and reflects the sharp recovery in industrial production following the spring lockdown. However, similarly to the rest of Europe, the second wave of COVID-19 has had a significant impact and further lockdown measures have been implemented. It is expected that this will lead to a fall again in Q4 and Moody’s forecast that GDP will contract by 9.2% this year. Industrial production however recovered back to the level seen at the start of the year and rose by 3.7% y-o-y in November. Industrial confidence index improved by November with industrial exports showing a 2.4% increase compared to the same period in 2019. Hungary is expected to significantly benefit from the next generation EU recovery fund agreed in 2020 which will provide a stimulus to the Hungarian economy, equal to some 6.7% of GDP in the period of 2021-2025. GDP is forecast to growth 3.0% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.

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