COVID-19 Impacts for EMEA Real Estate

It comes as no great surprise to anyone that turning over the calendar to 2021 hasn't seen all the bad news of 2020 being left behind. The second wave of COVID-19 has seen many countries face more challenges than back in April during the peak of the first wave.

We are in the northern hemisphere winter and the virus does seem to be more virulent during the colder weather, as we approach the spring, we anticipate a natural decline in the number of cases being seen. The other issue encountered, initially in the UK, but now in other markets has been the recognition of a mutant strain of the virus that is up to 70% more contagious than the initial variant. Thankfully, this new strain, and the other uncovered in South Africa, is no more deadly but it is easier to catch.

The positive news this past fortnight is how quickly the vaccine programme is being rolled out across Europe. Currently the UK has, as of 26 January, vaccinated 6.8million (11% of the population), including 80% of over 80 year olds. There appear to be some logistical challenges in some other major economies where between 1% and 3% have been vaccinated. Political pressure is building to restrict supplies of some vaccines manufactured in the EU to those countries outside its structure. Hopefully this will swiftly be resolved and we won't experience political wrangling over such a critical issue.  

The likelihood is that we will see a slow start to the year, January and February will see businesses reviewing their performance during 2020 and making decisions for the year ahead. From March on (unless there are further unknowns to come) we will see recovery across the EMEA region. There is an increased body of thought that, as with the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918, we will see a volume of pent-up demand that will lead to consumer and business spending over the course of the next year and on into the middle of the decade.

Interest in the property sector is strong, many conversations are underway across Europe addressing all sectors. We know there will be more questions posed and answers given over the next few months and we welcome the chance to engage.