According to Portugal's central bank, GDP will contract by 9.5% in 2020, the largest drop since the Great Depression. Assuming the pandemic remains under control and restrictive measures continue to ease, economic activity should however rebound from Q3-20, with growth rates of 5.2% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022. The bank expects a relatively limited impact on residential real estate, with the construction sector being one of the less affected by the pandemic; but a collapse in tourism-related services (60% drop in 2020), with persisting effects until 2022.
The Government supplementary budget has recently been approved (in broad terms) by the parliament, predicting a spending increase of €4.3 billion, of which €2 billion concern employment policies. The underlying forecasts for the budget are less negative, predicting a drop of the economy of 6.9% in 2020 and an increase of 4.3% in 2021.
In the commercial real estate sector, Q2 market values reflect the slowdown of activity. Although face values have remained unchanged, tenant incentives are increasing. Lisbon prime rents are stable at €23.0/sq m/month in offices, €130.0/sq m in high street retail and €4.0/sq m/month in industrial. Prime yields have however already registered some increase, to 4.10% in offices, 4.25% in high street retail and 6.10% in industrial (i.e., a 10 to 25 b.p. softening).
As the easing of the lockdown measures continues, the Government plans to shift Portugal into a less restrictive State of Contingency on 1 July, with areas least hit by the virus, like the Algarve and Alentejo, possibly shifting directly into a mere State of Alert.
In the retail sector, and according to the recently established lobby group Association of Retail and F&B Brands (AMRR), the first week of June registered an average YoY drop in sales of 39% in shopping centres and 37% in high street retail, based on data from 2,040 stores. This analysis excludes shopping centres and stores in excess of 400 sq m in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, as these only reopened on 15 June (instead of 1 June in the other regions) given a spike of new cases in the region.
Regarding the hospitality sector, the latest estimates by the Portuguese Hospitality Association (AHP) foresee a decrease in overnight stays between 40.6 and 46.4 million this year, as well as revenue losses of €3.3 billion. Nevertheless, domestic demand is evolving favourably, with an increasing number of reservations. This is particularly evident in the Algarve, where it is estimated that 60% of the hospitality units have already reopened. Foreign demand should also pick up, as airlines resume international flights to Portugal and land borders restrictions with Spain are to be lifted on 1 July.
As the reopening of the economy continues, so does the implementation of new government measures including, among others, a new 6-month extension of a moratorium on the repayment of bank loans (thus totalling 12 months) and more state-guaranteed loans for companies.
Regarding retail, and according to 31 May data from SIBS Analytics (credit card and ATM supplier), consumption levels are at 82% (vs. pre-pandemic index = 100), albeit at different paces among regions. Lisbon is the furthest behind, a trend expected to continue given the postponement (to 15 June) of the reopening of stores above 400 sq m and shopping centres in the region due to a recent increase in infections.
In the hospitality sector, reservations are already picking up for the summer season, with land borders restrictions with Spain expected to be lifted on 1 July and airlines slowly resuming international flights to Portugal.
According to a survey launched during a recent Cushman & Wakefield webinar hosted by the Portuguese Valuation & Advisory team, 60% of the respondents believe the Portuguese real estate market will resume normal activity within 12 months, with 40% anticipating that assets will return to 2019 values within 24 months. The most resilient sectors in terms of yields (increases of less than 25 b.p.) are offices and industrial, with no less than 96% of participants indicating a preference for considering new opportunities particularly in the residential and healthcare sectors. >>View the survey results.
The economy continues to gradually return to normal, with a further easing of the lockdown starting 1 June:
- Office - partial return to the workplace (combined with home working), with much lower density levels and several restrictions on the use of common areas;
- Retail - stores with more than 400 sq m and shopping centres reopened, although schemes in the Lisbon region may take longer given the recent spike of new cases in the area;
- Hospitality - after a 97% decrease in overnight stays and guests in April, mainly due to total closure or no guests, several units started reopening. Most operators, mainly those in beach destinations, will do it gradually over the next months, adjusting to demand.
According to an Iberian survey launched by Cushman & Wakefield to both national and international investors, 66% of the respondents believe the Portuguese investment market activity will return to normal within 6 to 12 months. 70% to 90% of the respondents anticipate a softening of prime yields in the hospitality, office and retail sectors. Participants believe that the leasing market activity in the hospitality, retail and student housing sectors will most likely return to previous levels within 1 to 2 years, whereas healthcare, logistics and residential PRS appear to be more resilient, with an expected recovery of occupational activity within 3 months.
The second phase of the gradual easing of lockdown is evolving positively, with most F&B units and stores up-to 400 sq m reopening, alongside with part of the schools.
After a sharp decline in consumer confidence, and despite it still being too early to ascertain, consumers started returning to high street retail, signalling a potential increase on non-food retail (which registered a 19.1% drop in March).
In the office sector, companies generally adapted well to remote working and most, starting 1 June, will see their employees combining homeworking with a return to the workplace, albeit at around 20% to 35% of the previous density.
The hospitality sector will also gradually reopen from June onwards, with a ‘Safe & Clean’ seal promoted by the Official Tourism Board. Given the large amount of cancelled reservations and the uncertainty about the lifting of travel bans, hotels will mainly rely on the domestic market.
According to a survey by INE and the Bank of Portugal, and comparing with pre-COVID-19 expectations, 77% of firms continued to report a negative impact on turnover during the first half of May - of more than 50%, for 35% of those companies. Consequently, tenants continue seeking to further negotiate rental payments with landlords.
Given the encouraging results of the first, limited phase of lockdown lifting, the second phase has proceeded. From 18 May F&B units (with new social distancing rules) and larger shops (up to 400 sq m, with street access) could open. In education, nurseries and schools (albeit only the last 2 pre-university years) have also reopened.
According to the latest estimates by the National Statistics Institute (INE), the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was significant in March, affecting Q1 performance: GDP dropped 2.4% YoY, with exports (largely due to tourism), decreasing 5.1% YoY.
In the occupational property sector, most deals are still on hold and there is virtually no new demand. Q2 completions will mostly include transactions that were already at an advanced stage of negotiation. The second half of the year might increasingly reflect the current standstill in the market, possibly leading to higher rental incentives provided by landlords, particularly in the most hampered sectors and/or secondary locations. As for investment, and despite Portugal’s continued presence on investors’ radar, the uncertainty regarding operating incomes and the lower availability of financing will potentially lead to a reduction in values and to some increase in required rates of return.
After a six-week lockdown under the State of Emergency, with most non-essential services shut, the country entered the slightly less restrictive State of Calamity. Numerous small and medium-sized companies are already in distress, putting pressure on tenants to further negotiate with landlords and forcing the Government to implement additional assistance measures.
In the retail sector, new rules allowed for the opening of small neighbourhood shops, bookshops and beauty services. Larger stores will follow suit, including restaurants, in phase two (18 May), but restrictions for most units in shopping centres are only likely to be lifted from 1 June.
In the hospitality sector, several operators are preparing to reopen some units in the month of June. They will target the domestic market and hope that June’s various bank holidays will generate some business. Given the importance of beach tourism, particularly in the Algarve, bookings will be contingent on the announcement of new access rules to beaches.
With remote working expected to progressively scale down, most companies are working on the adoption of new guidelines to allow a safe return of employees to the workplace.
With the end of the State of Emergency, during which most non-essential services were shut down to contain the spread of the new coronavirus, Portugal's lockdown began to be gradually lifted on 4 May. Subject to the positive evolution of the epidemic, a timetable has already been defined for which sectors may further open on 18 May and 1 June. Consequently, an increasing number of businesses are already planning their return to operation.
In the real estate market, the Q1 indicators already reflect some impact of the outbreak, namely in retail (with the new opening of only 85 stores: -53% YoY), and hospitality (with a preliminary estimate of 9 million overnight stays: -18% YoY). Although industrial also registered a decrease in take-up to 34,700 sq m (-18% YoY), this mostly mirrors the somewhat erratic behaviour of demand. Conversely, office take-up in Greater Lisbon reached 44,700 sq m (+6% YoY) and investment activity registered a record high volume of €1.5 billion (+273% YoY).
The above indicators were of course influenced by the positive momentum that the Portuguese market was going through but, with most players currently adopting a cautious approach, the Q2 figures should register a general and substantial YoY decrease, following which a gradual recovery will depend upon the evolution of this pandemic.
The State of Emergency will end on 2 May and is not expected to be extended for a third time. The Government is now working on the rules for a gradual and phased reopening of some retail establishments, services and companies.
In the retail sector, smaller neighbourhood shops are likely to be allowed to reopen first, followed by small high street units, and only afterwards by larger retail stores. The rules of social distancing and hygiene measures will be particularly relevant to hairdressers / beauty salons and restaurants, with the latter expecting (at least) the reinstatement of the mandatory reduction of one-third of costumers implemented before the state of emergency. Tourism-dependent retailers will take longer to recover, with some operators already considering a delay in reopening.
With most hotels voluntarily closed, the hospitality sector is working towards resumption of business and most units may start reopening in July (some in June). To address customer confidence / anxiety the creation of a ‘health guarantee seal’ is being discussed. There are major concerns regarding when and how travel bans will be lifted, given the sector’s dependence on foreign visitors. Consequently, operators will look to attract the local market in the first instance. Some units, particularly city-centre hotels, may remain closed for longer.
The state of emergency was extended until 2 May, but already allows for a gradual and phased reopening of some retail establishments, services and companies.
Most real estate players are adopting a wait-and-see approach, including the office sector. A substantial slowdown in new demand is being registered, while some tenants are requesting incentives, particularly rent-free periods. This trend is also occurring among industrial and logistics occupiers, where the supply chain of several industries is affected, although the logistics operators focused on servicing food retailers and the health sector are thriving.
Although the current crisis is yet to impact supply levels in the residential sector, there is a clear decrease in demand, thus accelerating the price correction which had already started at the end of 2019. In the rental market, a clear increase in supply coming from units previously used for the short-stay market, contributed to a downwards price adjustment, particularly in the lower and middle market segments.
In the institutional investment market, and despite the current uncertainty, active parties intend to resume deals as soon as the dust starts settling, albeit likely at different pricing levels. Many investors are signalling availability and willingness to do opportunistic deals, whilst more conservative ones are watching from the side-lines, but ready to return at a later stage.
The State of Emergency is almost certain to be extended this week until 1 May. In addition, the Government announced that schools will remain closed for the rest of the academic year, with classes continuing through distance learning.
In the retail sector, some landlords have decided to grant tenants a rent-free period. However, the majority is in a wait-and-see mode until a legal opinion is issued on the recently implemented moratorium on rents, which allows for no rental payments during the compulsory shop closure (to be clawed back pro-rata over a 12-month period thereafter).
With their revenue substantially affected, many retailers are applying for the simplified lay-off programme. This is also an increasing trend in the hospitality sector, where most units are closed by management decision and some institutional owners are considering postponing planned disposal programmes, in order to return to market with a stronger historical performance.
In the investment market ongoing deals are not yet cancelled, but no new transactions are being initiated. Ongoing transactions were frozen by mutual agreement between sellers and buyers, with the latter remaining committed, albeit unable to progress due to operational difficulties and uncertainty about asset performance over the current period.
Despite record low base rates, risk premiums are rising and availability of finance to complete CRE deals is shrinking, which may impact pricing.
The State of Emergency in Portugal was renewed on 2 April for an additional 2 weeks and includes further restrictions on travel during Easter.
Parliament approved a moratorium on the payment of residential and non-residential rents for tenants facing difficulties, also safeguarding residential landlords who find themselves in economic need as a result of that, thus adding to the already implemented moratorium on bank credits.
Tourism is registering significant drops in occupancy rates, and most operators have now temporarily closed their units.
Retail is facing the challenge brought by the closure of non-essential physical stores, with tenants turning to online sales and the resilience of supply chains being tested.
With the general implementation of homeworking, coworking operators are under additional pressure, whereas tech companies are gaining prominence.
On the investment market, asset prices are likely to be revised downwards, due to:
- higher cost and limited availability of debt,
- increased return expectations by investors in the most battered asset classes and
- the probable drop in operating income, particularly in sectors under greater pressure.
Regarding pipeline, construction works, and licencing processes continue, albeit at a slower pace than previously. Nevertheless, several future projects may be postponed or even cancelled given the current market uncertainty.
In Portugal, a State of Emergency was announced on 18 March, allowing the Government to implement restrictive measures, among others a general duty of home seclusion, adoption of homeworking and closure of non-essential commercial activities.
In a country heavily reliant on tourism and with a significant proportion of small and medium-sized companies, the effects of this pandemic are already being felt in the real estate market. Several measures announced by the Government are however expected to mitigate its impact. The latest a draft law (to be voted by Parliament) is to create a temporary moratorium on the payment of rents, mortgages and commercial loans.
Players in the real estate market are adopting a cautious approach and, apart from transactions that were already at an advance stage of negotiation, most deals have been put on hold.
The sectors currently most affected are hospitality and retail, but it is anticipated that the impact of the pandemic will broaden to the entire occupational real estate arena, with some tenants already requesting incentives (particularly rent-free periods).
As for investment, Portugal remains on the investors’ radar and, despite the reduced availability of bank financing, there is still high appetite in the market, with opportunistic investors starting to emerge.