Q1 2026 data points to an apartment market entering a period of recalibration, as elevated core prices cool buyer demand while more affordable satellite locations continue to sustain market liquidity.
Ho Chi Minh City, May 2026 – Cushman & Wakefield’s Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) MarketBeat Q1 2026 shows that core HCMC recorded approximately 1,200 new apartment launches during the quarter, down 62% QoQ and 47% YoY, while average primary prices rose to nearly USD 7,300 per sqm. In contrast, the expanded HCMC market, led by new growth poles - previously Binh Duong and Ba Ria – Vung Tau (BT-VT) provinces, recorded more than 7,000 new units and over 6,100 transactions, highlighting the growing role of satellite locations in supporting residential demand.
" HCMC’s apartment market is entering a more multi-centric phase of growth," said Ngoc Le, Senior Director, Head of Strategic Consulting, Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam. "While the core market remains highly sought-after and continues to command premium pricing, affordability pressures and limited product diversity are encouraging buyers to look further outward. This is creating stronger momentum in satellite locations where new supply, connectivity and price points are better aligned with current demand. As the expanded HCMC market takes shape, new growth poles will play a more strategic role in supporting housing demand and shaping the city’s next residential growth cycle."
CORE HCMC
New Supply Eases at the Start Of 2026
In Q1 2026, core HCMC recorded a sharp decline in new launches, with approximately 1,200 units introduced, down 62% QoQ and 47% YoY. The slowdown reflected a cautious “wait-and-see” stance from developers at the start of the year.
The East submarket continued to dominate, accounting for 80.3% of total supply, followed by the South with 19.7%. By segment, the luxury segment led with 72%, while high-end products made up the remaining 28%. Notable launches, including Masteri Cosmo Central and Masteri Park Place by Masterise Homes, as well as Sunshine Sky City by Sunshine Group, gained strong traction, supported by premium positioning and attractive sales strategies.
Demand: Absorption Slows in Q1 2026
In Q1 2026, the market recorded a new absorption of below the 1,000-unit mark, equivalent to ~ 25% of new supply, down 74% QoQ and 31% YoY. The combination of the upward primary prices and limited product diversity (lack of affordable/mid-end options) clearly cooled buyer appetite compared to the strong momentum seen in 2025. This trend indicated that demand was mismatched between luxury supply and mid-market demand.
Besides, the tightening of credit and rising cost of debt acted as a significant headwind, slowing absorption as buyers adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach for more favorable monetary conditions in the coming quarters.
Prices: Average Primary Prices Maintain Upward Momentum
In Q1 2026, while supply hit a record low, the average primary price reached an all-time high of nearly 7,300 USD/m2, a sharp increase of ~ 19% QoQ, ~ 53% YoY. Notably, this figure represented the baseline market valuation and does not yet deduct for 'early bird' incentives or accelerated payment discounts, indicating sales policies and payment schedules continue to play a major role in shaping list prices.
Outlook: Sustainable Growth
The trend of average primary selling prices in the core HCMC market is expected to remain anchored at high levels due to rising input cost pressures and upward adjustments in mortgage interest rates. Capital flows from other regions, particularly investors from the North, are pouring into core HCMC with expectations of price appreciation after a long period of stagnation caused by a shortage of new supply.
Following the merger, the market is expected to continue growing steadily based on three factors: supply-demand balance, credit control, and legal support. This opens a new cycle for the expanded HCMC apartment market.
HCMC’S NEW GROWTH POLES (PREVIOUSLY BINH DUONG AND BR-VT PROVINCES)
Supply: Binh Duong Leads New Launches While BR-VT Shows Early Recovery
In Q1 2026, the apartment market in the extended HCMC area recorded approximately 7,017 new units, decreasing by 17.4% QoQ, while remaining at a relatively high level. Supply continued to be driven by satellite markets, particularly Binh Duong, while BR-VT began to re-emerge after a period of limited new supply.
- Binh Duong: Remained the primary supply driver, with 6,430 units launched concentrated in Thuan An and Di An, supported by ongoing urban development and residential demand. Key projects included Phu My Hung Harmonie, Lusso Saigon (branded residence operated by WORLDHOTELS), Emerald Garden View, and Green Skyline, developed by reputable names such as Phu My Hung, Phat Dat, and Le Phong, reinforcing market confidence.
- BR-VT: Recorded 587 units of new supply from the remaining tower of Maison Grand in Phu My (developed by Tung My), continuing the recovery phase in 2025 after the silent period in 2023-2024. This indicates early signs of market reactivation, although supply remains modest as compared to Binh Duong.
Demand: Steady Absorption with Continued Focus on Satellite Markets
Total apartments sold in Q1 2026 across the expanded HCMC market reached approximately 6,118 units, reflecting solid market liquidity despite a moderation from the previous quarter. Demand continued to shift toward satellite markets, supported by more competitive pricing and increasing interest from investors amid persistently high apartment prices in core HCMC.
- Binh Duong: Recorded 5,484 units sold, with an average absorption rate of 76.6%, reflecting strong take-up in projects by reputable developers such as Phu My Hung, which continue to attract both end-users and investors.
- BR-VT: Recorded approximately 634 transactions, including both new launches and remaining inventory, indicating improving liquidity as the market gradually regains momentum.
Price: Adjustment Continues Amid Segmentation by Market
In Q1 2026, primary apartment prices across the extended HCMC market showed continued adjustment, reflecting product mix and sales structure across submarkets.
- Binh Duong: The average primary price reached USD 1,886/sqm, decreasing by 7.4% QoQ but increasing by 16.9% YoY. The QoQ decline was mainly driven by a shift toward mid-range products, following strong absorption of higher-end units in the previous quarter.
- BR-VT: The average primary price reached USD 1,373/sqm, increasing both QoQ and YoY, supported by the re-entry of new supply and improving market demand. Pricing remains differentiated across projects, reflecting variations in location and product positioning.
Outlook: Pipeline Expansion and Selective Growth
- In the 2026-2029F period, Binh Duong is expected to add approximately 31,816 units, with supply concentrated in Di An, Thuan An, and Thu Dau Mot, supported by improving connectivity and ongoing urban expansion. The pipeline reflects continued developer confidence and reinforces Binh Duong’s role as a key residential extension of HCMC.
- BR-VT will see more limited additions, led by ~1,000 units from Beacon Tower (Blanca City) in 2026, followed by subsequent phases in 2027. This indicates a more selective development approach, focusing on prime locations rather than large-scale townships.
Click here for more insights from Cushman & Wakefield’s HCMC MarketBeat Q1 2026.
