China’s Five-Year Plan (FYP) is a medium and long-term master plan for national economic and social development, focusing on central policy areas such as national infrastructure, the structure of the economy, and distribution of economic growth and social wellbeing.
The outlines of the 14th FYP, covering the period 2021 – 2025, (with an extended planning horizon to year 2035) was agreed at the Fifth Session of the 19th Central Plenary Session held in October 2020, with the release of Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development together with Long-Term Goals for 2035.
Together, these communiques review the success of the targets set five years ago and present a blueprint for China’s development in the coming five years and, this time, through to the next 15 years.
The 14th FYP is particularly significant, coming in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and as the world wrestles with unprecedented uncertainties. China’s economy itself faces major challenges and, as the world’s second-largest economy, China’s planning decisions have the potential for global impact. We can draw three top-level observations from the new FYP:
- The first to be issued since China has achieved recognition of economic middle-income country status
- Confirms overall planning goals of economic modernization and achieving “medium-developed” country status and a doubling of per-capita income by 2035
- Sets out the framework of development target indictors for the coming five year period as the foundation towards the 2035 goals
The structure of the 14th FYP emphasizes healthy and sustainable economic growth, leadership in technology, environmental protection and the green economy, and social stability and wellbeing. Within these areas, goals in technological innovation, new urbanization and “dual circulation” economic development, together with a reiteration of the principle that “homes are for living in, not for speculation,” are all expected to bring positive impacts to China’s future real estate markets.