COMMENTS ON URA REAL ESTATE STATISTICS FOR Q3 2026

RESIDENTIAL

Increasingly cautious buying sentiments weighing on sales volume

While private residential prices continue to rise, buyers have become more cautious amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. With sellers holding firm on asking prices, transaction volumes may stay tempered even as prices continue to edge up.

Overall private residential sales volume fell by 16.3% qoq or 30.5% yoy to 5,146 units in Q3 2026, compared to a 13.6% qoq increase in volumes recorded in Q2 2026. The bulk (73.9%) of overall sales volume in Q3 2026 was driven by the resale market. On a quarterly basis, sales volume slowed across all types of sales in Q3 2026, of which new sales volume saw the greatest decrease at 44.7% qoq, followed by sub sales (-16.5% qoq) and resales (-0.3% qoq). Despite a continued rise in private residential prices, buying momentum has moderated, with sales volumes for the first three quarters of 2026 reaching 16,707 units, or a 15.6% yoy decline compared to the same period last year (Q1-Q3 2025).

Recent private residential new launches (excluding ECs) have seen healthy take-up rates, albeit with fewer major launches. In the first three quarters of 2026, most (72.7%) of the major newly launched projects (more than 100 units) sold more than 50% of their respective total units, compared to around 61.1% of the major projects launched during the same period a year ago (Q1-Q3 2025).

Sustained growth in private residential prices

Despite persistent global macro-economic uncertainty weighing on buyer sentiments, private residential prices rose at a faster pace by 1.4% qoq in Q3 2026, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of increase. In the first three quarters of 2026, private residential prices grew by 2.8% ytd, compared to 3.3% yoy growth for the whole of 2025.

The increase in private residential prices was largely broad-based and driven by both the landed and non-landed segments. Landed residential prices grew by 2.9% qoq in Q3 2026, marking a second consecutive quarter of increase. Landed residential prices continue to be supported by a combination of limited supply and sustained local demand. Over the last 5 years (Q4 2021 to Q3 2026), landed home prices have grown by 40.2% cumulatively, outperforming non-landed home prices which recorded a cumulative growth of 33.0% over the same period.

Non-landed residential prices rebounded and grew by 1.0% qoq in Q3 2026, compared to the slight 0.1% qoq fall in Q2 2026. Non-landed residential prices were driven by the Outside Central Region (OCR), which rose 2.3% qoq in Q3 2026. In comparison, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) prices remained flat while Core Central Region (CCR) prices increased by 0.3% qoq.

We remain cautiously optimistic that private residential prices could still grow by 3.0%-4.0% yoy in 2026, supported by still-low borrowing costs, sustained underlying local demand and rising replacement costs. That said, buyer sentiments have been moderated by uncertainty over the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, as well as concerns about the potential impact of AI on employment and income prospects. Additionally, while HDB upgrader demand is still expected to persist, overall momentum could slow (HDB resale prices fell 0.1% qoq in Q3 2026, or the third consecutive quarter of decline).

Low unsold inventory underpins developers’ confidence

As of Q3 2026, total unsold inventory rose by 26.7% qoq to 19,076 units though it remains low compared to the ten-year annual average of 21,498 units. Relatively low unsold inventory and rising private residential prices continues to support developer appetite for land, although bidding has become more selective, with well-located sites attracting strong interest and record prices. Notably, the GLS site at Lorong Puntong / Sin Ming Avenue was sold at $1,612 psf ppr in September 2026, surpassing expectations and setting a new record price for a residential-zoned site in the Rest of Central Region (RCR).

Low new completions and steady demand to support stronger rental growth

Private residential rents rose at a faster pace by 1.3% qoq in Q3 2026, extending from the 0.7% qoq growth in Q2 2026 and marking the third consecutive quarter of increase. In the first three quarters of 2026, rents grew by 2.3% ytd, compared to 2.4% ytd growth over the same corresponding period. Islandwide private residential vacancy rates rose by 0.8 percentage points to 7.2% in Q3 2026.

The mass market OCR rents outperformed and grew by 3.1% qoq in Q3 2026, followed by the mid-tier RCR rents which rose by 1.5% qoq. On the other hand, the high-end CCR market rents fell by 0.3% qoq in Q3 2026.

Private residential rents are expected to grow at a faster pace of up to 3.0% in 2026, compared to 1.9% yoy growth in 2025, supported by a constrained supply pipeline and steady demand from international students. A total of 7,783 new private residential units is expected to be completed in 2026, significantly below the 10-year annual average of 10,837 units.

OFFICE

Office Vacancy Continues to Tighten

The overall Singapore office market continues to see steady occupier demand amidst a limited availability of office space. Central Region office rents rose 0.8% qoq in Q3 2026, matching the growth recorded in Q2 2026 despite persistent global economic uncertainty. Islandwide net demand reached 0.2 msf in Q3 2026, bringing YTD (Q1-Q3 2026) net demand to 0.5 msf, the highest YTD net demand since 2023.

At the same time, islandwide net supply contracted by 0.8 msf, partly due to the redevelopment of HarbourFront Centre. The combination of positive net demand and shrinking supply pushed islandwide office vacancy down to 10.0% in Q3 2026, its lowest level since Q1 2024.

The Downtown Core remained the most active submarket, recording 0.1 msf of net demand in Q3 2026, or about 53% of islandwide net demand for the quarter. This marks its sixth consecutive quarter of positive net demand, likely supported by higher take-up at new developments such as Shaw Tower and Keppel South Central, particularly from technology occupiers.

Financial services, professional services and technology occupiers continue to anchor leasing activity, accounting for about 29%, 19% and 16% of new CBD leases respectively in YTD 2026, based on C&W research data. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related firms are emerging as a more significant source of demand, underscoring Singapore’s growing position as a regional hub for innovation, digital infrastructure and knowledge-intensive industries.

Based on a basket of offices tracked by C&W Research, CBD Grade A vacancy declined to 3.9% in Q3 2026 from 4.7% in the previous quarter. Market activity also suggests occupiers are planning for future space requirements, with developments such as One Comcentre, The Clifford and Union Square Central reportedly attracting leasing interest ahead of completion.

Market fundamentals remain supportive despite geopolitical tensions and an uncertain interest rate outlook. CBD Grade A office rents have grown 3.8% YTD in 2026. With vacancy expected to stay tight and new supply limited, particularly in the near term, we maintain our forecast of 4-5% growth in CBD Grade A rents for the full year.

The Central Region office price index declined by 0.1% qoq in Q3 2026, reversing the modest gains recorded over the previous two quarters. Based on caveat data, islandwide strata office transaction activity moderated during the quarter, with transaction volume easing to 72 units from 80 in Q2 2026, while median prices softened from $2,320 psf in Q2 2026 to $2,179 psf in Q3 2026. While interest rate uncertainty may have weighed on investor sentiment, the softer median price likely reflects a shift in transaction mix rather than weaker market fundamentals, with the share of strata office deals in the CBD (D1 and D2) falling to 25% in Q3 from 34% in Q2.

RETAIL

Prime Retail Supported by New Brands and Limited Supply

Central region retail rents increased by 0.7% qoq in Q3 2026, following the 0.6% qoq growth in the previous quarter. However, this growth was likely led by tier 1 malls, which continued to draw keen retailer interest, rather than a broad-based improvement across the islandwide retail market.

Islandwide net demand was negative at -0.2 msf in Q3 2026, bringing cumulative net demand to -0.6 msf YTD. Though the fall in net demand was partially driven by the removal of retail stock perhaps due to the redevelopment of Harbourfront Centre. The Outside Central Region (OCR) and Orchard were the only two areas with positive net demand of 0.1 msf and 0.01 msf respectively.

Orchard continues to attract new-to-market brands. Recent openings such as Korean footwear brand Rockfish at ION Orchard and London streetwear brand Palace at Scotts Square, together with upcoming openings including Thai fashion label Gentlewoman at 313@Somerset and Japanese doughnut chain I'm Doughnut at ION Orchard, reinforce Orchard Road's position as Singapore's premier shopping destination and preferred location for international brands making their Singapore debut.

Retailer expansion activity remained healthy despite a challenging operating environment. The successful backfilling of former prime and anchor retail space at Tampines Mall by retailers such as Casa Vostra, Paris Baguette, Sephora and Dior Beauty underscores continued demand for well-positioned assets with strong catchment demographics and footfall. Despite widely reported retail and F&B business closures, new business formation in the retail and F&B sectors remained positive at 992 entities as at August 2026, indicating that new business creation activity continued to offset business cessations.

Looking ahead, prime retail rents are expected to remain on an upward trajectory. Retailers continue to gravitate towards dominant malls and prime retail destinations that offer brand visibility and strong footfall. At the same time, landlords are continuing to invest in asset enhancement initiatives, with recent and planned upgrades at City Square Mall, West Mall, Hougang Mall, NEX and Plaza Singapura aimed at refreshing tenant mixes and maintaining asset competitiveness. Retail completions are projected to average 0.6 msf per annum between 2027 and 2031, below the 0.7 msf per annum annual average between 2017 and 2026. With only 4% of upcoming supply expected in Orchard Road, supply pressures within Singapore's prime shopping belt are expected to remain limited, supporting rental growth in prime retail assets.