Cushman & Wakefield’s Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) MarketBeat Q1 2026 shows that industrial real estate in the Southern Key Economic Zone began 2026 on a steady footing. The quarter was characterized by consistent land availability, measured leasing activity, and resilient rental performance across industrial parks, ready-built factories, and warehouses. Ho Chi Minh City remained the primary hub for advanced manufacturing, while surrounding provinces such as Dong Nai and Tay Ninh continued to attract investment momentum, supported by infrastructure improvements and diversified occupier demand.
"The Southern Key Economic Zone is entering a new phase of maturity, where supply growth is being digested and demand is increasingly shaped by high-value industries and evolving FDI priorities," said Doan Chuong, Associate Director, Leasing Agency, Industrial & Office at Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam. "With infrastructure upgrades accelerating and occupiers becoming more selective, we expect the market to balance stability with transformation — reinforcing the region’s role as a strategic hub for manufacturing, logistics, and advanced industrial activity."
INDUSTRIAL PARK LAND
Supply: No New Project Enters The Market
In Q1 2026, total industrial land supply in the Southern Key Economic Zone remained at approximately 36,400 ha, unchanged QoQ with no new supply recorded. On a yearly basis, supply increased by 8.6% YoY, reflecting the significant land releases in 2025.
HCMC continued to lead with approximately 45% of total supply, followed by Dong Nai (33%) and Tay Ninh (22%). The stable supply level indicates a transition into a digestion phase, as newly released land is being absorbed and developers moderate the pace of new launches following the previous expansion cycle.
Demand: Absorption Rebounds While Occupancy Stabilises
The overall occupancy rate in Q1 2026 reached 74.8%, up 0.3 ppts QoQ but down 1.3 ppts YoY. Net absorption improved to approximately 127 ha (+182% QoQ, +59% YoY), but occupancy rates have remained largely stable as new supply continued to outpace leasing demand. Compared to Q1 2025, total stock expanded by around 2,871 ha, while leased area increased by only 1,710 ha.
At the submarket level, HCMC achieved occupancy rates of 84.8% (+0.4 ppts QoQ), supported by demand from higher value-added industries, while Dong Nai remained stable at 71.6% and Tay Ninh improved to 59.0% (+1.0 ppts QoQ) from a lower base. Demand was driven by land-intensive industries such as heavy industry, energy, petrochemicals, and steel manufacturing, particularly in areas like Cai Mep or Dat Do with notable absorption in Q1 2026.
Rent: Industrial Land Rents On The Rise
The average asking rent for IP land (countrywide) reached approximately USD 186.6 per sqm per lease term in Q1 2026, increasing by 0.9% QoQ and 1.7% YoY, reflecting a stable pricing environment with slight upward adjustments.
Across submarkets, rental trends diverged, with HCMC rising to USD 184.2/sqm (+4.0% QoQ, +6.7% YoY), while Dong Nai remained stable at USD 188.0/sqm (flat QoQ, +2.6% YoY). In contrast, Tay Ninh declined to USD 188.7/sqm (-1.8% QoQ, -4.0% YoY), reflecting price recalibration amid elevated vacancy and expanding supply.
Market Outlook
In the 2026–2029F period, the Southern IP land market is expected to record approximately 5,347 ha of new supply, with HCMC accounting for 59%, followed by Tay Ninh (24%) and Dong Nai (17%). While HCMC continues to anchor high-value industrial activities, the pipeline highlights a growing shift toward satellite provinces, where larger land banks support the expansion of land-intensive industries and cost-efficient production.
Future developments are increasingly aligned with heavy industry manufacturing, energy, petrochemicals, alongside emerging high-tech sectors such as semiconductors and chip manufacturing, reflecting evolving high-quality FDI demand. At the same time, developers are integrating ESG standards and modern planning into new industrial parks. The completion and acceleration of key infrastructure such as Ring Road 3, Ring Road 4, Ben Luc–Long Thanh Expressway, Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway, and connectivity to the Cai Mep–Thi Vai port cluster are expected to enhance regional integration, unlocking new industrial corridors and reinforcing the Southern Key Economic Zone’s role as a strategic manufacturing and logistics hub.
READY-BUILT FACTORY (RBF)
Supply: Market Records ~192,000 Sqm Of New RBF Supply
In Q1 2026, the total existing supply of Ready-Built Factories (RBF) in the Southern Key Economic Zone reached approximately 6.8 million sqm of Net Leasable Area (NLA). The market recorded an additional ~192,000 sqm of new leasable area, primarily in Ho Chi Minh City and Dong Nai.
Regarding supply distribution, Ho Chi Minh City and Dong Nai continued to expand, posting QoQ growth of approximately 5.7% and 0.6% with total stock reaching 3.3 million sqm and 2.2 million sqm, respectively. Meanwhile, Tay Ninh remained at 1.4 million sqm, with no additional supply recorded. This highlights the continued concentration of new supply within the region’s key industrial hubs.
Demand: Occupancy Remains Stable With Recovery In Absorption
The RBF market in Q1 2026 sustained healthy leasing activity, with total net absorption reaching over 170,000 sqm, marking a strong rebound from the previous quarter. Occupancy levels remained stable across the region, with Dong Nai leading at 94.8%, followed by Tay Ninh at 93.7%, while HCMC softened to 89.7% amid new supply additions.
Leasing activity in Q1 2026 was primarily supported by both expansion and consolidation from manufacturing occupiers, particularly in precision engineering and supporting industries. Notably, several ready-built factory clusters in Binh Duong and Dong Nai achieved full occupancy during the quarter, with assets transitioning from the low-90% range to 100%, reflecting accelerated take-up within established industrial zones. In parallel, new leasing transactions from international manufacturers, including a US-based industrial components producer, highlight continued demand from export-oriented tenants. This reinforces the preference for ready-built factories as a solution to optimize upfront capital expenditure while enabling faster production ramp-up.
Rent: Remains Firm Amid Stable Market Conditions
The average asking rent for RBF in Q1 2026 reached approximately USD 4.9/sqm/month, increasing slightly from USD 4.86/sqm/month in Q4 2025 and continuing its upward trend YoY. This reflects sustained demand in established industrial locations, where Dong Nai recorded high occupancy levels alongside rent growth, while other markets remained relatively stable. Well-located and high-specification assets continued to maintain pricing despite new supply entering the market.
Market Outlook: Supply Expansion Aligned With Industrial Transformation
In the 2026–2029 period, the market is expected to record approximately ~944,000 sqm of new RBF supply, with HCMC accounting for over ~800,000 sqm, reinforcing its role as the core industrial hub. While this pipeline will ease space constraints in established clusters, it is also expected to intensify competition among landlords as new supply enters the market.
Demand is expected to remain supported by high-quality FDI inflows, particularly in electronics, precision engineering, and high-tech manufacturing. At the same time, improving infrastructure connectivity, including Ring Road 3, Ring Road 4, and Long Thanh International Airport, will enhance regional accessibility and strengthen the Southern Key Economic Zone’s position within global supply chains. In this context, occupiers are expected to become more selective, with increasing preference for high-specification and ESG-compliant facilities.
READY- BUILT WAREHOUSE (RBW)
Supply: Market Remains Stable With No New Additions
In Q1 2026, total RBW supply in the Southern Key Economic Zone remained unchanged at approximately 6.6 million sqm, with no new projects recorded during the quarter, while expanding 4.2% YoY. Following a rapid expansion period in 2025 (~266,000 sqm of NLA of RBW were completed), developers are now prioritizing occupancy stabilization and operational efficiency over further scale-up.
HCMC leads with approximately 45% of total supply, followed by Dong Nai (32%) and Tay Ninh (23%). While HCMC remains the dominant logistics hub, Dong Nai and Tay Ninh continue to serve as key satellite supply clusters, offering additional capacity within the regional warehouse network.
Demand: Positive Absorption With Slight Occupancy Increases
The RBW market in Q1 2026 recorded net absorption of approximately 65,657 sqm, with the occupancy rate increasing to 91.7%, up 1.0 ppts QoQ and 11.7 ppts YoY, despite no new supply entering the market. Demand remained primarily driven by logistics and e-commerce occupiers, while emerging locations such as Tay Ninh continued to record occupancy improvement, supported by increasing leasing activity.
HCMC (post-merger) maintained near-full occupancy at 99.0%, up 0.1 ppt QoQ, limiting available space and supporting further take-up in satellite markets. Dong Nai reached 88.4% (+1.0 ppts QoQ), while Tay Ninh improved to 81.7% (+2.8 ppts QoQ). Leasing transactions continued to be recorded in warehouse clusters adjacent to HCMC, with occupiers securing mid-sized spaces to balance proximity to consumption centers and cost efficiency, reinforcing the role of satellite locations within the regional logistics network.
Rent: Stable Rent Levels Across Sub-Markets
The average rental rate for RBW in Q1 2026 remained stable at approximately USD 4.6/sqm/month, unchanged QoQ, while increasing by 4.8% YoY. Across submarkets, rental levels remained broadly aligned at USD 4.5–4.8/sqm/month, with HCMC at around USD 4.5/sqm, while Dong Nai and Tay Ninh ranged from USD 4.6 to 4.8/sqm. The variation reflects differences in stock composition, where HCMC’s average rent is diluted following the post-merger expansion, while Dong Nai and Tay Ninh maintain higher rent levels supported by a greater share of newer, institutional-grade developments.
Market Outlook The RBW market is expected to add approximately ~661,000 sqm of supply during 2026–2029, with HCMC accounting for 65%, followed by Tay Ninh (19%) and Dong Nai (17%). While HCMC maintains its role as the core logistics hub, new supply in satellite provinces reflects a shift toward larger-scale and modern warehouse developments, supported by strong connectivity and proximity to the main consumption market. Looking ahead, future developments are increasingly focused on high-specification warehouses, incorporating automation and ESG standards to meet the operational requirements of e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and FMCG occupiers, among others — particularly for last-mile distribution. At the same time, major infrastructure projects such as Ring Road 3 (estimated completion in 2026), Ring Road 4, Ben Luc–Long Thanh Expressway, Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway, and Can Gio Transshipment Port are expected to enhance regional connectivity, acting as key catalysts for the next phase of logistics expansion across the Southern Key Economic Zone. Click here for more insights from Cushman & Wakefield’s HCMC MarketBeat Q1 2026.
