COVID-19 Impacts for EMEA Real Estate

It comes as no great surprise to anyone that turning over the calendar to 2021 hasn't seen all the bad news of 2020 being left behind. The second wave of COVID-19 has seen many countries face more challenges than back in April during the peak of the first wave.

We are in the northern hemisphere winter and the virus does seem to be more virulent during the colder weather, as we approach the spring, we anticipate a natural decline in the number of cases being seen. The other issue encountered, initially in the UK, but now in other markets has been the recognition of a mutant strain of the virus that is up to 70% more contagious than the initial variant. Thankfully, this new strain, and the other uncovered in South Africa, is no more deadly but it is easier to catch.

The positive new is of course the fact we now have several vaccines that have come through rigorous trials successfully. The UK, as of 12 January, has vaccinated 2.4million people, including 40% of over 80-year-olds. In Israel 20% of the population has already been vaccinated and the Government has committed to offering the vaccine to everyone by the end of March this year. Most of mainland Europe started vaccinating very late in December and is some way behind the UK and Israel but likely to catch up and progress quickly.  

The likelihood is that we will see a slow start to the year, January and February will see businesses reviewing their performance during 2020 and making decisions for the year ahead. From March on (unless there are further unknowns to come) we will see recovery across the EMEA region. There is an increased body of thought that, as with the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918, we will see a volume of pent-up demand that will lead to consumer and business spending over the course of the next year and on into the middle of the decade.

Interest in the property sector is strong, many conversations are underway across Europe addressing all sectors. We know there will be more questions posed and answers given over the next few months and we welcome the chance to engage.