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Returning investor confidence throughout the Nordics

Annika Edström • 10/09/2020
Investors show an optimism for the Nordic real estate investment market in the latest Cushman & Wakefield “Property Investor Confidence Index” conducted in late August.
Investors show an optimism for the Nordic real estate investment market in the latest Cushman & Wakefield “Property Investor Confidence Index” conducted in late August.

Stockholm, 10 September 2020 – A returning confidence among many investors in the Nordic countries summarize the result from Cushman & Wakefield Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index for Q3 2020. The confidence dip in the beginning of Q2 has turned around and real estate is once again deemed an attractive investment opportunity. However, the expected demand for space is still uncertain for retail and also a bit more for the office segment compared to previous surveys. Industrial/logistics is expected to cope best in terms of expected demand in the coming six months, which is also reflected in yield expectations. Residential and public properties are also expected to best cope with the challenges of the pandemic and vacancy development is currently the most important growth driver for values ahead. Sustainability classifications are also considered key to future proof the portfolio.

The individual Nordic country markets have experienced different impacts during the pandemic spring and also in expected development ahead, although a positive and common sign are active investors looking to add to their portfolios in all countries.


Norway


Norwegian investors continue to plan to increase their portfolio, here there was not even a noticeable dip in preferred acquisitions during Q2.

Hans Petter Skogstad, Head of Research at Cushman & Wakefield Realkapital in Norway says: “We believe in a large volume this fall, but processes will not be as public as we are used to, at least not until transactions are completed. This is a consequence of uncertainty. Simultaneously, the survey reminds us that sudden changes are natural in the current situation, which is increasingly clear when looking at the short-term market mood.”


Denmark


Danish investors are most positive about their own portfolio development ahead and the demand for offices and retail is expected to drop the least here.

Lior Koren, Partner - Capital Markets, Cushman & Wakefield | RED in Denmark says: “We are happy to see an increasing optimism in the market compared to April and it seems like the uncertainty is now slowly declining. Investor demand is not surprisingly still leaning towards the residential market, where we have seen almost no defaults in rent collections and a condominium market that is still very active. It is evident that the capital is seeking towards the core markets: residential, centrally located office properties and prime logistics. If the supply of quality product will come to the market the next two quarters, we expect 2020 to finish strong.”

 

Finland

Sustainability classifications are viewed to be important also by finish investors, although currently only around 40% are willing to pay a premium for higher sustainability. The logistics/industrial sector is seen to perform strong both in occupier and investors demand.

Ville Suominen, Partner Valuation & Research at Cushman & Wakefield in Finland: “Although no big change in the overall sentiment compared to Q2, we are pleased to see that more investors are showing interest in acquisitions, rather than disposals or keeping acquisitions/disposals at balance. During Q2 the residential market was clearly the most active, and the trend is seen to continue going forward. Although there has been a limited amount of logistics transactions, the demand is clearly there – perhaps just looking for the right assets.”

Ville Suhonen, Partner Capital Markets at Cushman & Wakefield in Finland: “The survey results for Finland supports that demand has remained stable also for office properties and recent transactions also support strong market sentiment for H2/2020."

 

Sweden


The continued interest in office building investments is strong among Swedish investors. Also near all respondents consider sustainability classifications being crucial for future proofing their portfolio.

Kristoffer Sandberg, Head of Capital Markets at Cushman & Wakefield in Sweden: “Although most investors are still interested in offices, they are clearly less likely to buy projects or vacancy risk, which until March this year was rather considered a potential for future rental development. We currently see the greatest interest in multi-family, public and logistics properties, where the latter is driven by the strong growth for e-commerce also intensified further now during the pandemic.”


Annika Edström, Head of What's Next at Cushman & Wakefield in Sweden: “It is interesting to see how sustainability has matured in terms of impact on investment assessments. The fact that a majority of the investors today see different types of certifications as minimizing portfolio risk is strongly linked to both a committed ownership interest and improved financing conditions.”


Cushman & Wakefields Nordic Property Investor Confidence Survey
Cushman & Wakefield Nordic Property Investor Confidence Index, normally issued bi-annually, was launched extra with a Q2 edition due to the Covid-19 outbreak. The report provides recent confidence for the coming six months and further insight on how investors expect to and already react in terms of investments and managing properties due to the current effects of the virus. The report is based on surveys simultaneously sent out to Cushman & Wakefield investor clients in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. The latest survey was conducted among professional property investors on the 13-21 August 2020.

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Annika Edström
Annika Edström

Head of What´s Next/Research • Stockholm

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