Key takeaways from the latest 2026 Trends Radar report
Macroeconomic prospects
An ageing population will reshape the real estate market. By 2060, Poland’s population may fall to around 30 million, with people aged 60+ accounting for 35–36%. This will drive demand for senior housing and services tailored to older clients, while reducing demand for offices and, to some extent, warehouses.
Inflation has slowed, and interest rates dropped to 4.25% (forecast for mid-2026: approx. 4%). Price stability, moderate GDP growth, and low unemployment (3–5%) create a favorable environment for investment decisions.
Investment market
Poland remains the leading and most liquid market in the CEE region. Strong fundamentals, competitive yields, and growing transaction volumes attract both domestic and international capital, increasingly targeting regional cities beyond Warsaw.
Office market
Demand is stabilizing (around 700,000 m² in 2025). Prime projects in top locations report near-zero vacancy, while older buildings require upgrades and repositioning. WELL, LEED, and BREEAM certifications and smart technologies are becoming standard for premium assets.
Retail market
Retail development pipeline at its highest since 2018, driven by retail parks and modernization of existing malls. Investments focus on energy efficiency, cost optimization, automation, and AI for inventory and returns management. High street retail continues to grow, adapting to older demographics and sustainability trends.
Industrial market
Poland’s warehouse stock exceeds 36 million m² – growth is slower than in 2022–23 but remains strong. Automation, AGV/AMR robots, drones, and AI-driven supply chain optimization are transforming logistics hubs and location strategies.
Living sector
Prices and sales have stabilized. Over 62,000 units remain available on the primary market, with Warsaw leading new supply (approx. 15,000 units by Q3 2025). Upcoming spatial planning reform and new civil protection law (effective June 2026) will impact land availability and development costs. Senior housing emerges as a key investment opportunity.
Hospitality
Continued growth: 18.2 million tourists used accommodation in H1 2025, generating 44.9 million overnight stays (+8.5% y/y). Forecast for 2026: over 61 million overnight stays. Record-breaking infrastructure investments (CPK airport, new regional airports, rail and road upgrades) and rising popularity of serviced apartments and extended-stay concepts blur the line between hotels and residential.
ESG
Decarbonization and energy efficiency are now essential to protect asset value and secure financing. Banks, funds, and tenants increasingly require net-zero strategies, energy audits, and CRREM compliance. Failure to act may result in a “brown discount” and financing challenges. Focus areas include low-emission materials, renewable energy, passive buildings, water management, and resource efficiency.