As a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, Dutch GDP is expected to contract by 5% which will cause unemployment to rise to 4.8% by the end of this year, and to 6.1% by mid-2021. Business investment is declining due to gloomy revenue expectations and private consumption are expected to decline as well since consumers wanting to save money, rather than spend it. Because similar effects are witnessed by our important trading partners, Dutch exports will also lag sharply this year and will only partially recover next year.
Office
The office market accounted for approximately 22% of the total investment volume in the first three quarters of 2020. This brings the investment volume to EUR 2.4 billion, a decrease of 38% compared to the same period previous year. A total of 694,100 square meters of office space has been taken up during the first three quarters of 2020. This take-up volume is 21% lower compared to the same period last year. This decline is not fully attributable to COVID-19. The continuing scarcity of high-quality office space in the most important office locations in The Netherlands is also an important cause. This scarcity has already been visible in the best locations in the largest cities in the Netherlands.
Retail
In the first three quarters of 2020, approximately EUR 1.1 billion has so far ben invested in retail property, with the majority already realized before the COVID-19 outbreak. The Retail and Hospitality industry are currently in severe weather as business is heavily affected as a result of COVID-19 contract restricting measures. Retail turnovers were severely impacted, but the differences between branches are significant. The increase in the number of COVID-19 infections is creating renewed uncertainty among retailers, investors and the shoppers.
Industrial
In the first three quarters of 2020, approximately EUR 2.4 billion has thus far been invested in industrial and logistical property, a decrease of 2% compared to the same period last year. The share of the industrial/logistics volume rose to 22% of the total investment volume of commercial real estate in The Netherlands, which is slightly higher than its average of 20% between 2010 and 2019.
In the first nine months, 58 transactions resulted in a take-up of 745,000 square meters of logistics space, which is approximately 60% below the first nine months in 2019. The take-up of industrial, non-logistical real estate, amounted to 1.3 million square meters.
Get the full Netherlands property market picture with all the market data by downloading the reports.
