Although the estimates of reputable economic bureaus are currently shrouded in considerable uncertainty, there seems to be growing consensus on the possible averting of an economic recession. Positive signals about the economy and a relatively warm autumn and winter In Europe, this means that a slow recovery is now expected after a weak (not necessarily negative) last quarter of 2022 and a slightly better first quarter of 2023 due to slightly improved sentiment. Growth for 2022 was high at 4.2% (year-on-year) thanks to a strong recovery in the first two quarters and growth for 2023 is expected by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis to reach 0.9% (year-on-year).
High inflation is ultimately the result of the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and the energy crisis, and is expected to amount to 10% in the Netherlands in 2022. Inflation will subside from 2023, and is expected to amount to 3.5%. Due to various government actions such as the energy price ceiling, economic growth is expected to amount to 0.9% in 2023 and will be driven significantly by government spending, resulting in a budget deficit of 3% in 2023.
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