Although the estimates of reputable economic bureaus are currently shrouded in considerable uncertainty, there currently appears to be consensus on the likelihood of a mild economic recession from the fourth quarter of 2022 through the first quarter of 2023. The year-on-year growth will be very high for 2022 at 4.6% thanks to a rock-solid recovery in the first two quarters of the year and the Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis also projects an economic growth for 2023 that will amount to 1.5%. However, with many external factors at work in a unprecedented way influencing the pure statistical modeling of economic growth, a general consensus or a broadly supported forecast of economic growth is currently out of the question.
There is currently a “perfect storm” for inflation in the making. The Netherlands had to deal with a currency devaluation of 14.5% in September. Although all eyes have been on the Russian invasion of Ukraine since February 24th, it is becoming increasingly clear that the underlying causes cannot be traced back one-to-one to the 'special military operation', but that the invasion mainly affects the already existing has seriously magnified disruptions to world trade caused by corona, especially with regard to the availability of energy, raw materials and foodstuffs. By way of comparison, inflation excluding energy and motor fuels amounted to ‘a mere’ 6.5% in September compared to the same month last year.
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