Based on URA flash estimates, Singapore private residential property prices fell 1.1% qoq in Q3 2024, following past four consecutive quarters of increase. In the first three quarters of 2024, private residential property prices grew 1.1% ytd, lower than 3.9% ytd growth over the same period in 2023. The bulk of the decline in prices can be attributed to the landed residential market which fell 3.8% qoq as compared to the non-landed market which fell only 0.3% qoq in Q3 2023.
The fall in landed prices in Q3 2024 follows 3 consecutive quarters of price increases and is the largest quarterly decline since Q2 2009. That said, we do not expect a sustained decline in landed home prices given their limited supply and resilient underlying local demand.
Within the non-landed residential market, only the Rest of Central Region (RCR) saw price growth of 0.2% qoq in Q3 2024. The Outside Central Region (OCR) and Core Central Region (CCR) prices fell 0.1% qoq and 1.5% qoq respectively. The fall in OCR prices in Q3 2024 followed past six consecutive quarters of increase. In the first three quarters of 2024, CCR, RCR and OCR prices grew 1.5%, 2.1% and 0.3% ytd respectively. This compares to 2023’s full year growth for the CCR, RCR and OCR of 1.9%, 3.1%, 13.7% yoy respectively. The steep moderation of OCR price YTD growth could be a sign of increasing buyer resistance for OCR home prices which have seen substantial price growth over the last few years.
In the first three quarters of 2024, total private residential sales volumes are estimated to end at about 14,000 units, or about 5% yoy fall compared to 14,710 units transacted over the same period in 2023.
Sales have slowed as buyers are increasingly selective due to higher new launch pipeline and heightened housing prices. Between January to August 2024, only 2 out of 8 major projects (25%) managed to sell more than 50% of their units during their month of launch. This compares to the same time period (Jan-Aug 2023) last year, where 6 out of 14 major new launches (43%) sold more than half of their stock within their month of launch.
We anticipate private home prices to grow by 1-4% for the whole of 2024, supported by resilient upgrading demand for private housing (HDB resale prices continued to grow by 2.5% in Q3 2024 based on flash estimates) amid still-low unemployment rates and strong household balance sheets. Interest rates are expected to gradually ease over time in line with cuts by the United States Federal Reserve, which may slightly improve buyer affordability and support sales volume. Baring new cooling measures and unforeseen economic shocks, overall sales volumes are expected to end at 18,000-19,000 units in 2024, compared to 19,044 units in 2023.
