Insights
Australian Logistics & Industrial Capital Markets 2026 Outlook
A new cycle begins.
Australia’s logistics and industrial markets have moved into a new phase of the cycle. While near-term volatility in debt markets may persist, 2026 is expected to see an improvement in capital deployment, with a greater focus on how assets are structured and exited.
Capital is returning, but not evenly. Rather than pursuing broad exposure, investors are anticipated to target assets and partnerships where alpha can be generated through active management, development potential, or platform expansion.
At the same time, moderating supply, tightening vacancy and replacement costs above market value are reinforcing a pricing floor for well-located assets and supporting the next rental growth cycle.
Performance will diverge across assets in this cycle. Investors are increasingly pricing assets based not only on current and forecast income, but on the depth of the future buyer pool and available exit pathways.
Download the report to understand where capital will flow and what it will target in 2026.
KEY SECTOR TRENDS
Capital returns, but selectively
Liquidity is returning, but capital is expected to remain highly selective, with a particular focus on assets, portfolios and partnerships that offer income security and functional relevance. This theme is expected to drive greater capital flows for core logistics.
Approximately $38bn of capital is targeting Australian logistics.
Income growth replaces yield compression
Rental growth, tenant resilience and active asset management will drive returns in 2026 rather than terminal yield upside. Assets offering clear pathways to rental uplift through market growth, re-leasing, or active asset management will attract stronger demand and greater liquidity.
Asset quality will matter as much as location
Assets in similar locations will diverge sharply in value based on functionality, lease risk and exit appeal. Falling supply and tightening vacancy are creating upside to rents, reinforcing the value of well-located stabilised assets.
Scale matters again
Portfolio and platform opportunities are expected to re-emerge as strategic advantages. Larger prime assets are expected to attract a broader capital base and offer greater exit optionality. Moderating supply is expected to provide stronger capital support for big box logistics, capitalising on occupier consolidation strategies. In many markets, replacement costs now sit materially above current values, creating a natural floor for pricing and supporting the investment case for stabilised assets.
WHY THIS MATTERS
As capital deployment improves, broad exposure will be less effective than targeted allocation, with risk shifting from market timing to asset positioning. Vacancy in the right locations remains investable, while secondary stock faces greater leasing and liquidity pressure.
Our latest report provides a data-driven view of where capital is likely to flow, what buyers will prioritise and where value can be created through the next phase of the market.
KEY CONTACTS
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL MARKETS LOGISTICS & INDUSTRIAL TEAM
Adrian Rowse
National Director, National Capital Markets, Logistics & Industrial
Melbourne, Australia
Vivian Nguyen
National Marketing & Strategy Manager, Capital Markets, Logistics & Industrial - ANZ
Melbourne, Australia
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