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Australia's Occupier Market Outlook

From headwinds to recovery: Uncover tomorrow's occupier market today

Tenant demand in Australia's logistics & industrial (L&I) sector is at an inflection point, with supply and demand dynamics beginning to shift.

While occupiers have taken a cautious approach to real estate over the past two years, leasing activity is showing signs of improvement, with momentum expected to build through 2026 and into 2027. A rebound in consumer spending - now growing at its fastest pace in more than 18 months - is a key driver of this shift.

At the same time, the development pipeline is moderating. Elevated construction costs and feasibility challenges are prompting developers to reassess strategies, constraining future supply just as demand strengthens. However, not all markets are equal, with the supply that will enter the market becoming much more concentrated across just a handful of markets.

As supply tightens and demand rebounds, positioning will be critical. Our latest report examines these dynamics and their implications for occupiers, investors and developers.

Key Topics

  • The state of play: How the logistics and industrial occupier market is performing right now
  • Global perspective: How Australia compares to key international markets
  • Occupier behavior: What tenants are doing and the factors shaping their decisions
  • Market outlook: Pragmatic market outlook and the trends set to influence demand going forward

Discover how occupier strategies, global influences, and evolving market trends are shaping demand, and what it means for occupiers, developers, and investors going forward.

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OCCUPIER MARKET OUTLOOK


1

CONSUMER ENVIRONMENT TO DRIVE THE ECONOMY

An improvement in consumer spending fundamentals is expected to support household consumption growth for goods of 5.0% per annum over the next two years.

This recovery will lay the foundation for greater leasing momentum.

2

LEASING DEMAND TO IMPROVE AS CERTAINTY RETURNS

Gross take-up is forecast to reach approximately 3.3 million sqm in 2026, rising further to 3.8 million sqm in 2027.

Net absorption is also expected to strengthen, with 2.0 million sqm projected for 2026 and 2.8 million sqm in 2027.

3

CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEAK UNTIL 2027

Over the 2026-2027 period, a 46% fall in speculative supply is forecast when compared to 2024-2025 levels, with the largest reduction expected within Melbourne.

Current feasibility constraints are expected to remain until 2027, at which point higher rents and yield compression will provide the tipping point for development.

4

VACANCY TO PEAK IN 2026

Australia’s vacancy rate is forecast to peak at just under 4.0% by early to mid-2026, before moving lower as supply begins to thin.

By the end of 2027, the national vacancy rate is expected to sit closer to 2.5%.

5

RENTAL GROWTH TO REMAIN BIFURCATED

Nationally, prime net face rental growth of approximately 3.9% per annum is forecast in 2026 and 2027.

Longer term, declining incentives are forecast to support national net effective growth of 4.8% per annum between 2025 and 2030, led by the Melbourne market at closer to 5.3% per annum.

WHY THIS MATTERS

The sector is moving into a phase where decisions made today will shape performance for years to come. With costs rising, supply moderating, and tenant demand regaining momentum, timing and location are becoming more critical than ever.

This report is designed to help market participants cut through the noise. It provides clarity on where risks are emerging, where opportunities are strengthening, and how the next cycle is likely to unfold. Whether you’re securing space, allocating capital, or planning developments, understanding these shifts is key to staying ahead.

CONTACTS

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Luke Crawford

Head of Logistics & Industrial Research
Australia


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Tony Iuliano

International Director, Head of Logistics & Industrial, ANZ
Sydney, Australia


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David Hall

National Director, Head of Brokerage, Logistics & Industrial, ANZ
Sydney, Australia


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Morgan Evans

National Director, Tenant Advisory, Logistics & Industrial
Melbourne, Australia


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Tenant Advisory Team

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Morgan Evans

National Director, Tenant Advisory, Logistics & Industrial
Melbourne, Australia


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Luke Robertson

Associate Director, Tenant Advisory, Logistics & Industrial
Sydney, Australia


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Edward Swan

Senior Executive, Tenant Advisory, Logistics & Industrial
Sydney, Australia


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Ben Cunningham

Associate Director, Tenant Advisory, Logistics & Industrial
Sydney, Australia


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Simon Keenan

Senior Executive, Tenant Advisory, Logistics & Industrial
Melbourne, Australia


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Renee Ferraro

Manager, Tenant Advisory, Logistics & Industrial
Melbourne, Australia


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Stuart Duncan

Director, Tenant Advisory, Logistics & Industrial
Melbourne, Australia


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