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Poland Real Estate Market Outlook Midpoint 2025

02/09/2025

Polish CRE Market 2025 – Trends and the Growing Role of Domestic Capital

The first half of 2025 confirmed the growing role of Polish capital in the commercial real estate market. The value of investment transactions reached €1.71 billion, with 40% of office transaction volume attributed to domestic investors. This demonstrates the increasing professionalism of Polish entities and their boldness in acquiring high-quality assets – both in major metropolitan areas and regional markets. Experts from C&W forecast that the total investment volume in 2025 will exceed €4 billion, with investor activity expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.

Poland’s solid economic fundamentals, confirmed by a 3.4% year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 2025, contribute to positive investor sentiment and market stability. In the office sector, transactions amounted to nearly €400 million, with €232 million recorded in Q2 alone. The value of transactions in the warehouse market during the first half of the year reached €694 million, marking more than a twofold increase year-on-year. During this period, the first portfolio transaction exceeding €100 million was finalized. In the retail sector, despite a 35% decline in transaction value compared to the five-year average, a rebound is expected in the second half of the year. Poland ranked second in the CEE region in terms of hotel transaction volume, confirming the growing attractiveness and maturity of the domestic hotel market.

Supply Trends Shaping the Market in the Second Half of the Year:

Office Sector

Developers are focusing on central locations, which, combined with limited new supply, leads to a persistent supply gap. In 2025, 85,200 m² of new office space was delivered in Warsaw (+34% year-on-year), but development activity remains moderate, and rent increases are concentrated in prime locations. The vacancy rate is also declining, especially in modern buildings in the city center.

Warehouse Market

Remains stable – new supply in the first half of the year totaled 1.15 million m² (down 26% year-on-year), with the vacancy rate holding at 8.2%. Tenants are active but selective, and new investments are mainly located in proven areas.

Retail and Hotel Markets

Notable changes are also observed – in 2025, a record number of new retail parks will enter the market, and the Warsaw hotel market is experiencing growth in room numbers and record occupancy rates.

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