APARTMENT FOR SALE
SUPPLY: STRONG RECOVERY DRIVEN BY HIGH-END SEGMENTS
In Q3 2026, the HCMC apartment market recorded 2,373 newly launched units, up 87% QoQ and nearly four times the level recorded in Q3 2025. The East accounted for the largest share of new supply at 51%, followed by the South (35%) and West (14%), with notable projects including Gladia Heights, Casa Luna and Masteri Cosmo Central. No new launches were recorded in the CBD or CBD Fringe. By segment, high-end apartments accounted for 54% of new supply, followed by luxury (30%), ultra-luxury (2%) and mid-end (14%). Despite the strong recovery in supply, developers continued to adopt phased launches and carefully consider the timing of new project releases.
DEMAND: TRANSACTIONS CONCENTRATED IN MORE “AFFORDABLE PRODUCTS”
Apartment absorption during the quarter reached 37% of total primary supply, including remaining inventory from previous quarters. Transactions were mainly concentrated in projects priced below VND 100 million/m², with good connectivity and clear legal status. This reflects a mismatch between supply and demand, as 86% of new supply belonged to high-end and above segments, while end-user demand remained focused on more affordable products.
Buyer interest remained, although purchasers took more time to compare options. Some sought opportunities in existing inventory, while others waited for upcoming projects. Financing costs also remained an important consideration, with 12-24-month fixed mortgage rates averaging approximately 10.9% per annum across 11 surveyed banks.
PRICES: QUARTERLY DECLINE DRIVEN BY CHANGES IN SUPPLY MIX
Average asking prices reached VND 102 million/m² (-39% QoQ; -26% YoY). The decline mainly reflected the absence of new launches in the CBD and CBD Fringe, where prices are highest, rather than a broad-based price correction. Developers also remained cautious in pricing new launches amid increasingly selective buyer demand. The average price reflects base listing prices, excluding early-bird incentives and accelerated payment discounts. Actual purchase prices may therefore be lower depending on the project and payment terms.
OUTLOOK: STRONG SUPPLY GROWTH TO PUT PRESSURE ON LIQUIDITY
The market is expected to add over 27,000 newly launched units during Q4 2026–2027, equivalent to more than 5,000 units per quarter and over twice the Q3 launch volume. While buyers will have more options, recent market performance suggests that higher supply may not lead to a corresponding increase in transactions. Projects priced beyond the affordability of target buyers may face longer sales periods. As a result, market liquidity in 2027 will depend on project pricing strategies, payment policies and development schedules, as well as mortgage interest rate movements.
LANDED PROPERTY
SUPPLY: STRONG GROWTH DRIVEN BY LARGE SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENTS
In Q3 2026, HCMC’s landed housing market recorded 1,979 newly launched units, up 16% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). New supply was nearly 40 times the very low level recorded in Q3 2025, marking a clear recovery after a prolonged period of limited supply. The South and North accounted for more than 90% of new supply, mainly from two large urban developments: Vinhomes Green Paradise in Can Gio and Vinhomes Saigon Park in the former Hoc Mon district
DEMAND: SALES CONTINUED, BUT ABSORPTION REMAINED SLOW
The market recorded 925 units sold, representing an absorption rate of 24% of total available primary supply. Sales remained slow compared with the number of units offered. Landed homes require a large financial commitment, so buyers carefully assessed total purchase prices, payment schedules and construction progress. Transactions therefore remained concentrated in products with affordable total prices that meet end-user demand.
PRICES: SHARP ANNUAL DECLINE AS SUPPLY SHIFTED TO SUBURBAN AREAS
Average primary selling prices reached VND 163 million/m², down 2% QoQ and 49% year-on-year (YoY). The former Thu Duc area continued to record the highest average price at VND 330 million/m², around twice the levels in Can Gio (VND 169 million/m²) and the former Hoc Mon district (VND 140 million/m²). The sharp annual decline mainly reflected a shift in supply from the East to lower-priced suburban areas. It did not mean that prices at individual projects fell by the same amount. Meanwhile, the 2% quarterly decline in average prices came amid slow sales, as buyers remained cautious about total purchase costs and payment commitments.
OUTLOOK: STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON LARGE URBAN DEVELOPMENTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRESS
In the short term, upcoming phases in Can Gio and former Hoc Mon are expected to remain the main sources of new supply. While this will maintain a steady flow of new launches, the market will remain heavily dependent on the launch strategies of a few large-scale townships. Over the longer term, integrated developments combining residential, commercial, services and green spaces in areas with large land banks are expected to remain a key development trend.
Ring road projects, National Highway 22 and the Can Gio connection route are expected to improve accessibility, although many remain under development. As a result, actual infrastructure and amenity completion will be more important to buyers than planned improvements alone. Products priced largely on expectations of future infrastructure may require longer sales periods.
