Charlotte's industrial market is entering a pivotal leasing cycle. Between 2026 and 2031, approximately 46.1 million square feet (msf) of industrial leases are set to expire, creating a sustained wave of tenant decisions that will influence occupancy, competition, and market performance across the region. Rather than being distributed evenly across the market, this activity is concentrated in specific submarkets, industries, and lease profiles, creating distinct areas of risk and opportunity. This report explores where rollover pressure is building, the sectors that will drive outcomes, and the factors most likely to shape Charlotte's next chapter of industrial leasing activity.
Key Findings:
- 46.1 msf of industrial leases are scheduled to expire between 2026 and 2031, creating an extended multi-year rollover cycle.
- The expiration wave will peak in 2028 with 10.8 msf, approximately 65% above historical averages.
- Lease rollover risk is heavily concentrated along the I-77 corridor, particularly within the Southwest, North, Airport, and York County submarkets.
- Nearly 80% of expiring square footage is tied to retail/wholesale, manufacturing, and transportation/logistics users, making sector-specific demand a key determinant of market outcomes.
- The Southwest submarket accounts for the largest concentration of upcoming expirations, positioning it to have the greatest influence on leasing activity through 2028.
- Differences in tenant mix and lease size distribution will create varying levels of exposure across submarkets, leading to divergent performance throughout the cycle.
