CONTACT US
Share: Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on LinkedIn I recommend visiting cushmanwakefield.com to read:%0A%0A {0} %0A%0A {1}
Shoppers at a mall (image) shoppers at a mall (image)

Insights

U.S. Shopping Center Reports

Access the latest quarter commercial real estate results for the retail sector nationally. MarketBeat reports analyze quarterly market activity including supply, demand and pricing trends.

Download Q2 2025 Report

For the data behind the commentary, download the full Q2 2025 U.S. Retail Report.

Tariffs: A Moving Target  

The economic outlook has become more uncertain in the last several months, particularly as it relates to consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of GDP in the United States. Consumer confidence has declined relative to where it was entering the year and retail sales have also weakened in the last couple months. The labor market will be crucial to sustaining consumer spending, and while job growth has downshifted, the economy continues to add jobs and the unemployment rate remains historically low at 4.1% as of June. While our baseline forecast does not call for a recession, economic growth is expected to be modest over the next couple quarters as inflation ticks up and consumers and businesses adapt to shifting policy.  

Tariffs remain a central question mark, and the next several months will provide guidance on how retailers and their customers respond over the eventful back-to-school shopping season. The size and scope of tariffs remains a moving target, making it difficult for retailers to confidently assess the impacts on supply chains and pricing. This uncertainty is likely already contributing to delayed decision-making on leasing, which is down 20% year-to-date compared to the first half of 2024. Retailers had already begun adopting a more cautious approach to real estate, and that trend has only intensified. Over the past 12 months, store closure announcements have consistently outpaced planned openings, signaling a broader pullback is in the works. 

 

Sluggish Start to 2025 

The national vacancy rate rose to 5.8% in the second quarter of 2025, a 20 bps increase from Q1 and a 50 bps increase from a year ago. Net absorption registered -6.5 msf which, outside of the first quarter absorption of -7.1 msf, was the weakest since mid-2020. This also marks the first time absorption has been negative for two consecutive quarters in the post-pandemic era. All four regions of the country exhibited net negative demand: 56 of the 81 markets tracked by Cushman & Wakefield Research experienced absorption declines. Birmingham, St. Louis, Phoenix, Charlotte, San Francisco, and Houston bucked the trend and were the markets with the strongest positive absorption during Q2. 

The reversal in net demand is leading to easing pressure on asking rents. Nationally, asking rents for shopping center space averaged $25 per square foot in the second quarter, which represents a 2.3% year-over-year (YOY) increase. Rent growth has taken a material step back from early 2024 when it was trending above 4.0%, and now retail rent growth is below the current rate of inflation. Increasing numbers of store closures and mounting cost pressures on tenants are likely to further dampen rent growth in the next several quarters. 

For the data behind the commentary, download the full Q2 2025 U.S. Retail Report.

Q2 2025 U.S. SHOPPING CENTER MARKETBEAT
Access Q2 2025 commercial real estate results for the retail sector.
Download Report

Want more information on economy and trends?

Get the latest insightful forecasts and predictive analyses into every commercial real estate sector.

Featured Insights: Current U.S. MarketBeats

US Office MarketBeat (image)
MarketBeat

U.S. Office Reports

Access the latest quarter commercial real estate results for the office sector nationally. MarketBeat reports analyze quarterly market activity including supply, demand and pricing trends.
David Smith • 7/14/2025
U.S. National Industrial MarketBeat (image)
MarketBeat

U.S. Industrial Reports

Access the latest quarter commercial real estate results for the U.S. industrial sector. MarketBeat reports analyze quarterly market activity including supply, demand and pricing trends.
Jason Price • 7/14/2025
U.S. National Retail MarketBeat Report (image)
MarketBeat

U.S. Shopping Center Reports

Access the latest quarter commercial real estate results for the retail sector nationally. MarketBeat reports analyze quarterly market activity including supply, demand and pricing trends.
James Bohnaker • 7/14/2025
U.S. National Multifamily MarketBeat (image)
MarketBeat

U.S. Multifamily Reports

Access the latest quarter commercial real estate results for the U.S. multifamily sector. MarketBeat reports analyze quarterly market activity including supply, demand and pricing trends.
Sam Tenenbaum • 7/14/2025
hospitality-mb-national_webcard.jpg
MarketBeat

U.S. Hospitality Reports

Access the latest quarter commercial real estate results for the U.S. hospitality sector. MarketBeat reports analyze quarterly market activity including supply, demand and pricing trends.
David Smith • 5/14/2025

Related Insights

US Midyear Outlook-web card.jpg
Research • Economy

Midpoint 2025 | U.S. Economic & CRE Outlook

As we reach the midpoint of 2025, the commercial real estate landscape continues to evolve in response to shifting economic forces, dynamic investor preferences and changing occupier demands.
Rebecca Rockey • 6/9/2025
Fit Out Cost Guide retail 2025_webcard.jpg
Research

2025 U.S. Retail Fit Out Cost Guide

Cushman & Wakefield’s 2025 U.S. Retail Fit Out Cost Guide provides guidance on current construction costs across major U.S. regions and markets.
Brian Ungles • 5/14/2025
experiential-economy-webcard.jpg
Insights

The Rise of the Experiential Economy

Crafting the right experience is at the heart of placemaking in real estate. Developers, landlords and occupiers all seek experiences that elevate a location’s appeal, driving both economic growth and favorable real estate outcomes.
Rebecca Rockey • 4/7/2025

Related Industries & Specialties

Retail
Transforming communities through better retail strategies.
Learn More
Retail, E-Commerce & Logistics
At the connection of retail, e-commerce, logistics and industrial, we offer omnichannel solutions to keep you current in an evolving landscape.
Learn More

Ready to talk?

We’re on hand to help. Get in touch and we can assist with any additional information you need.

With your permission we and our partners would like to use cookies in order to access and record information and process personal data, such as unique identifiers and standard information sent by a device to ensure our website performs as expected, to develop and improve our products, and for advertising and insight purposes.

Alternatively click on More Options and select your preferences before providing or refusing consent. Some processing of your personal data may not require your consent, but you have a right to object to such processing.

You can change your preferences at any time by returning to this site or clicking on  Cookies

More Options
Agree and Close
These cookies ensure that our website performs as expected,for example website traffic load is balanced across our servers to prevent our website from crashing during particularly high usage.
These cookies allow our website to remember choices you make (such as your user name, language or the region you are in) and provide enhanced features. These cookies do not gather any information about you that could be used for advertising or remember where you have been on the internet.
These cookies allow us to work with our marketing partners to understand which ads or links you have clicked on before arriving on our website or to help us make our advertising more relevant to you.
Agree All
Reject All
SAVE SETTINGS