Amid elevated vacancy rates and cooling demand, many developers nationwide have tempered construction starts over the past 18 months. In doing so, the U.S. construction pipeline has declined by 60.0% since peaking in the second half of 2022 and is down 33.0% annually as of Q1 2025. Nationally, buildings sized 100,000 to 500,000 square feet now represent the majority of activity at 57.0% of total square footage. 

Meanwhile, the Central Region’s pipeline thinned to 86.3 million square feet (msf) under construction—32.0% of the U.S. total—marking a 64.0% decline from its record high in Q3 2022. 

While speculative development has led delivery totals since 2022, demand softness has shifted focus toward build-to-suit (BTS) projects. In Q1 2025, speculative developments accounted for 71.0% of national industrial deliveries—the lowest share since 2023. In the Central Region, speculative activity made up 62.0% of completed square footage. 

The slowdown in construction starts is expected to continue throughout 2025 amid market uncertainties and normalizing demand. 

 

About the Report 

The Central Region Speculative Construction Report analyzes speculative construction activity across key markets, including Austin, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Louisville, Minneapolis, San Antonio, and St. Louis. Specifically, each market provides a deep dive into: 

• Speculative bulk occupancy 
• Number of buildings completed 
• Square feet delivered 
• Average building size 
• Number of developers involved 
• Number of current tenants