The impetus received in H2 2020 was offset by the end of 2021. We expect the market to follow inertial scenario. The segment stabilization will take place in 2022-23. Low level of new construction in 2024-25 will be an “eco of 2020-21”.
By the end of 2021 we recorded an increase in rental rates, vacancy rate decrease, high new construction volume. In the mid-term we expect the indicators’ dynamics to slow down.
According to our forecast, vacancy rate annual growth will be at the level of 1 p.p. in 2022-23 due to new properties’ delivery and downward correction of demand. One of the main consequences of 2020-21 will be gradual decrease of construction activity – the start of new construction has been postponed to later periods during the last two years. In the mid-term projects started before the pandemic will be completed. Rental rates growth will be at the level of 3-4% annually.
We expect that in 2022-2023, the market will experience the effect of the pandemic -the activity of developers and tenants will decline. In the past two years, construction of new projects has hardly started, we will only see the openings of schemes that started construction before 2020.
The retail turnover is expected to increase by 6.9% in 2021. However, starting from 2022 the growth will be at the minimum level. The market will not be any more driven by a pent-up demand accumulated during 2020.
In 2021, all key market indicators performed record values. Almost all vacant area was leased, the highest take-up on record was observed for the second year in a row. The new commissioning exceeded results of the last 7 years. Aggressive growth of rental rates became the top topic on the market.
In 2022, the market will continue to perform strongly. Construction costs growth is expected to slow down which may provide an opportunity for some new unique warehouse solutions and completion of current constructions on time.
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